ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To compare the prognostic value and reproducibility of visual versus AI-assisted analysis of lung involvement on submillisievert low-dose chest CT in COVID-19 patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a HIPAA-compliant, institutional review board-approved retrospective study. From March 15 to June 1, 2020, 250 RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients were studied with low-dose chest CT at admission. Visual and AI-assisted analysis of lung involvement was performed by using a semi-quantitative CT score and a quantitative percentage of lung involvement. Adverse outcome was defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death. Cox regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves, and cross-validated receiver operating characteristic curve with area under the curve (AUROC) analysis was performed to compare model performance. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and Bland- Altman analysis was used to assess intra- and interreader reproducibility. RESULTS: Adverse outcome occurred in 39 patients (11 deaths, 28 ICU admissions). AUC values from AI-assisted analysis were significantly higher than those from visual analysis for both semi-quantitative CT scores and percentages of lung involvement (all P<0.001). Intrareader and interreader agreement rates were significantly higher for AI-assisted analysis than visual analysis (all ICC ≥0.960 versus ≥0.885). AI-assisted variability for quantitative percentage of lung involvement was 17.2% (coefficient of variation) versus 34.7% for visual analysis. The sample size to detect a 5% change in lung involvement with 90% power and an α error of 0.05 was 250 patients with AI-assisted analysis and 1014 patients with visual analysis. CONCLUSION: AI-assisted analysis of lung involvement on submillisievert low-dose chest CT outperformed conventional visual analysis in predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients while reducing CT variability. Lung involvement on chest CT could be used as a reliable metric in future clinical trials.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To demonstrate the accuracy and reproducibility of low-dose submillisievert chest CT for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in patients in the emergency department. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant, institutional review board-approved retrospective study. From March 14 to 24, 2020, 192 patients in the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 infection were studied by using low-dose chest CT and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Image analysis included the likelihood of COVID-19 infection and the semiquantitative extent of lung involvement. CT images were analyzed by two radiologists blinded to the RT-PCR results. Reproducibility was assessed using the McNemar test and intraclass correlation coefficient. Time between CT acquisition and report was measured. RESULTS: When compared with RT-PCR, low-dose submillisievert chest CT demonstrated excellent sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy for diagnosis of COVID-19 (86.7%, 93.6%, 91.1%, 90.3%, and 90.2%, respectively), in particular in patients with clinical symptoms for more than 48 hours (95.6%, 93.2%, 91.5%, 96.5%, and 94.4%, respectively). In patients with a positive CT result, the likelihood of disease increased from 43.2% (pretest probability) to 91.1% or 91.4% (posttest probability), while in patients with a negative CT result, the likelihood of disease decreased to 9.6% or 3.7% for all patients or those with clinical symptoms for >48 hours. The prevalence of alternative diagnoses based on chest CT in patients without COVID-19 infection was 17.6%. The mean effective radiation dose was 0.56 mSv ± 0.25 (standard deviation). Median time between CT acquisition and report was 25 minutes (interquartile range: 13-49 minutes). Intra- and interreader reproducibility of CT was excellent (all intraclass correlation coefficients ≥ 0.95) without significant bias in the Bland-Altman analysis. CONCLUSION: Low-dose submillisievert chest CT allows for rapid, accurate, and reproducible assessment of COVID-19 infection in patients in the emergency department, in particular in patients with symptoms lasting longer than 48 hours. Chest CT has the additional advantage of offering alternative diagnoses in a significant subset of patients.© RSNA, 2020.